Chris Matthews summarizes my immediate thought on this article (http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/03/obama-says-hes-the-underdog-in-2012/ ) when he said "The incumbent president is never the underdog" on the Chris Matthews Show this Sunday. Obama had, in a randomly sampled poll, been favored only 45% of the time as having a good chance in the presidential race. Because he was below 50%, a simple majority, he called himself the "underdog." He would be completely correct if it wasn't for the fact that he is facing several other candidates. Those other prominent candidates all have nearly equal shares of the remaining 55%. Thus, he has the highest percentage of all the candidates in terms of favor for winning the election. While the other candidates are republicans there is a good chance that some moderate republicans that ardently follow a specific candidate will side with Obama upon losing out to another republican candidate.
Additionally, Obama has been attempting to sway the moderates recently with various commercials featuring emotional appeals from ordinary citizens supporting his legislation. Given his past ability to sway the moderate voters in the past election there is a very good chance that he will have over 50% of the votes in the upcoming election. So, in no sense of the word is Obama an underdog.
However, as expressed in The Caucus (the blog article from the NY Times linked above) Obama is using this disguise just as many politicians before him have in order to provoke his current advocates to be more vocal about their beliefs and to try harder so that he will no longer be this imaginative "underdog." What else can you expect from someone who graduated top of his class at Harvard, led the U.S. for nearly 4 years, and has been noted as one of the greatest presidential orators since Reagan? He is using every single political strategy in the book to gain an even larger early edge in the upcoming election.
Elaboration upon the analysis of the Article
Obama realizes, just as every other candidate has, that every single press appearance can make or break his chances and knowing how to control these appearances will be instrumental in determining his success in the upcoming race. Especially with the possibility of a Supreme Court hearing before the election finishes addressing the constitutionality of "Obama care" (see my past blog on the topic) Obama will need to gain as much approval as possible early on so that, in the event that the Supreme Court denies his medical care plan, he still has a fighting chance in the election. The Supreme Court case is Obama's Risky card he has put into play so that he has a chance to seal the election away. Hiding behind that big card Obama has placed various smaller hands such as the previously discussed commercials; two of which could be seen on two occasions in the Chris Matthews Show today.
Additionally Obama has begun to let his plan in regards to congress unravel. Given that a better and professionalized discussion of this can be found in today's Chris Matthews Show I will limit my discussion of the topic. Basically, Obama has set a multitude of legislation on the table for Congress to look at. All of the legislation is in regards to giving jobs to the people as well as various other altruist and egalitarian acts. He flat out states that if Congress refuses to accept these solutions then they are letting politics get in the way of helping the people. So, either Congress passes his legislation or, as Obama puts it, the people will "run them out" of Congress. Basically, Congress either helps Obama politically or they risk losing the small amount of support they have managed to hold onto (Congress has had an embarrassingly low approval rating.)
All in all, the label of underdog is merely a fourth card Obama has placed and his opponents have not been able to create a meaningful counter attack. I believe that Obama, as of right now, has a good chance at taking this election unless the Republicans can muster a strong warhorse to rally behind and stop using little ponies to attack one another.
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